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The Day Data-Dependence Died: US Macro Has Longest-Winning Streak In History

Something 'odd' is going on. Amid the plethora of 11-foot-tall-men multiple-standard deviation beats in recent economic data, the Citi Macro Surprise Index did something it has never done before – it rose for 21 days straight – breaking the last 5 years trends of seasonal dumps (into mid-year) and pumps (into fiscal year-end)…

Consider that the 2nd longest winning-streak in US Macro data was 15 days in June 2008

After 18 months of disappointment, out of nowhere, the index ripped higher at the fastest rate since 2009 to its highest since Jan 2014.

 

With China calm, Brexit behind us, US equities at record highs, volatility at near-record lows, and macro data trends never been better… what possible excuse does a 'data-dependent' Fed have for not hiking rates today?

 

Simply put, if The Fed does not raise rates today, then it is clear there is another agenda diametrically-opposed to their self-defined data-dependence… in other words, this will be the day data-dependence died!

Rick Santelli gets it!!

 

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